The agency predicts that the recycling market of waste power batteries will start to break out in 2018, with the scale reaching 5 billion yuan that year. At present, auto manufacturers and power battery manufacturers are all focusing on the recycling industry.
Power battery scrap tide is coming
In recent years, the new energy vehicle market has witnessed explosive growth. According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2017, the domestic production of new energy vehicles was 794000, and the sales volume was 777000, ranking first in the world for three consecutive years. Statistics from the Ministry of Public Security show that by the end of 2017, the number of new energy vehicles in China had reached 1.53 million, accounting for 0.7% of the total number of vehicles. According to the national "13th Five Year Plan" for new energy vehicles, the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million by 2020.
As one of the core components of new energy vehicles, the use of power battery is increasing. According to the data of China Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association, the number of power batteries loaded on new energy vehicles in China reached 37.06GWh in 2017, with a year-on-year growth of 21.5%.
"The service life of power batteries is generally 5-8 years. The new energy batteries put into the market in the early stage are basically at the critical point of elimination. This means that power batteries will enter a large-scale wave of scrapping this year and next." Zhang Ying, secretary-general of the ELVs Branch of China Association for Renewable Resources Recycling, told China Securities News.
According to the prediction of China Automotive Technology Research Center, in combination with the factors such as the scrapping life of automobiles and the service life of power batteries, from 2018 to 2020, the total amount of scrapped power batteries in China will reach 120000 to 200000 tons; By 2025, the annual waste amount of power battery will be reported to reach 350000 tons.
It is estimated in the industry that the recycling market of waste power batteries will reach 5 billion yuan in 2018. From 2020 to 2023, the scale of waste power battery recycling market will further increase to 13.6 billion yuan - 31.1 billion yuan.
Since 2016, a series of policies and specifications have been issued for the recycling of waste power batteries. In January 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine jointly issued the Technical Policy for the Recycling of Electric Vehicle Power Batteries, which requires the adoption of the extended producer responsibility system. It is clear that the production enterprise is the main body responsible for recycling, and it is required to establish a new energy vehicle power battery traceability information management system to track and record the recycling of power batteries.
In May 2017, the National Standardization Administration approved the release of the Disassembly Specification and decided to implement it on December 1, 2017. Relevant personnel of power battery enterprises believe that the Disassembly Specification has improved the industry specifications to a certain extent, and has strict requirements on the safety, operating procedures, storage and management of waste power battery recycling. However, the problem of battery model, specification and size, which is the biggest factor restricting the current recycling of waste batteries, has not been involved.
In November 2017, the Interim Measures for the Administration of Recycling of New Energy Vehicle Traction Battery (hereinafter referred to as the "Interim Measures") was publicized. Gao Yunhu, Director of the Department of Energy Conservation and Comprehensive Utilization of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology would speed up the implementation of the Interim Measures for the Management of the Recycling of Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles, promote the construction of the standard system, build a national monitoring platform for new energy vehicles and a comprehensive traceability management platform for the recycling of power batteries, and actively explore a diversified recycling model with strong technology and economy and friendly resources and environment.
Li Yuke, deputy director of the Automotive Industry Policy Research Office of China Automotive Technology Research Center, told China Securities News that the interim measures are expected to be introduced in 2018. "Focus on ensuring the orderly return of waste power batteries to regular recycling enterprises."
It is difficult to use the steps
Generally speaking, when the capacity of power battery carried by new energy vehicles declines to about 80%, the power battery will be eliminated. At this time, the power battery can still be applied to energy storage equipment through cascade utilization, and put into commercial residential energy storage stations, electric vehicle charging energy storage stations, telecommunications base stations and other places. In addition to cascade utilization, waste power batteries can be disassembled, broken, smelted, recycled and recycled to recover valuable elements. "Cascade utilization can be seen as a link of recycling, and recycling is the final link." Li Yuke said.
At present, many battery enterprises begin to explore the mode of recycling and cascade utilization. Although the cascade utilization of waste recycling resource recycling recycling is the best recycling route for power batteries, the recycling route was not fully considered in the early battery production and design, and the performance of waste batteries is unstable, complex and different working conditions, so the above recycling route still has some difficulties.
Xia Shizhong, the general manager of Camel Group Battery Research Institute Co., Ltd., told China Securities News that at present, the domestic battery recycling technology mainly focuses on recycling and has broad prospects for commercialization. In terms of battery types, the power batteries are mainly lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary batteries. The content of precious metals in lithium iron phosphate is low, while the content of nickel, cobalt and manganese in ternary materials accounts for 12%, 3% and 5% respectively, and the total metal content is up to 47%, which has high recycling value. The commercial profit model of recycling waste ternary batteries is basically mature.
Ouyang Mingzhi, the secretary of the board of directors of GME, said that the technology of cascade utilization in China is not yet mature, and there are such limiting factors as high production costs, difficult pack disassembly, rapid detection technology of waste batteries to be improved, and vague division of responsibility subjects.
Li Jian, a professor of Central South University, believes that cascade utilization can greatly reduce costs through modular design. At the same time, if the cost of cascade utilization is properly controlled, the price will be close to that of lead-acid batteries, which can be used in the field of low-speed electric vehicles. "At present, more than 90% of low-speed electric vehicles use lead-acid batteries, indicating that the price of lead-acid batteries is recognized. If the price of lithium-ion batteries after cascade utilization is similar to that of lead-acid batteries, and the performance is more advantageous, the replacement of lead-acid batteries is operable."
Driven by multiple powers, since 2017, many enterprises in the new energy automobile industry chain have begun to lay out the field of battery recycling. Seen from the current situation, the lithium battery material system, power battery system and third-party institutions have basically formed a tripartite confrontation. Taking Greenway as an example, the company built a city centered power battery recycling and disassembly system, and set up waste power battery recycling centers in Tianjin, Wuhan, Henan, Wuxi, Shenzhen and other places. At the same time, we will build recycling outlets with automobile manufacturers, power battery manufacturers, cascade recycling enterprises, scrapped automobile recycling and dismantling enterprises, and build a recycling network for used power batteries.
In addition, Camel, BYD, Ningde Times, Huayou Cobalt, Guoxuan Hi Tech, AVIC Lithium Battery and other lithium battery material enterprises and battery manufacturers have all launched a layout in the field of power battery recycling.
In June 2017, Camel announced that it would jointly invest 50 million yuan with Jia Lei, Chairman of Anhui Taihe Changjiang Metal Materials Co., Ltd., to establish a joint venture specializing in recycling and processing of waste batteries. At the same time, the company will build a pilot scale demonstration line for power battery recycling with an annual processing capacity of 500 tons. According to the scrapping cycle of waste power batteries, it is planned to arrange waste power battery recycling lines in North China, Central China, East China, South China and other electric vehicle industry intensive areas.
According to industry analysts, from the perspective of battery manufacturers, the cascade utilization of waste power batteries through self construction or cooperation with third-party institutions will help alleviate the pressure of upstream material price increases and downstream vehicle enterprises to lower prices. From the perspective of lithium battery material enterprises, the recycling of power batteries can expand the supply channels of raw materials, ensure the supply of raw materials, reduce procurement costs, improve profitability, further improve the industrial chain, and create a closed-loop material system.
Opportunities and challenges coexist
The power battery recycling industry faces multiple opportunities and challenges. The recycling value of waste batteries is to extract metal resources from them. When the price of primary metal is at a high level, enterprises are more active in recycling battery waste through recycling.
Driven by the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry chain, the price of upstream raw materials has continued to rise in recent years. Taking lithium carbonate as an example, the price remained below 50,000 yuan/ton until October 2015, and then rose rapidly and remained above 120,000 yuan/ton, up to 170,000 yuan/ton; At the same time, the large-scale application of ternary material batteries in the field of passenger vehicles and logistics vehicles has greatly increased the demand for cobalt, and the price of cobalt has kept rising, rising rapidly from 180000 yuan/ton in 2016 to 500000 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly three times.
In terms of policy, the Ministry of Environmental Protection clearly stated that power battery recycling and dismantling enterprises do not need special qualifications and are currently open to all enterprises. "Qualification is not a problem, and there is a subsidy expectation. In this context, many capitals have set foot in this field." Xia Shizhong said.
Seen from the current situation, the cascade utilization of waste power batteries is difficult. "This is not only the problem of insufficient scale of waste power batteries, but also technical problems such as nondestructive disassembly, residual life detection, system integration, which affect the profit model of cascade utilization." Li Yuke said that accelerating the research of power battery cascade utilization and gradually realizing the commercial operation of cascade utilization will be the next focus of industrial development.
Xia Shizhong believes that the main factor restricting the development of power battery recycling is the high cost. The power battery pack belongs to Class IX dangerous goods, and the transportation process shall comply with the relevant provisions of dangerous goods transportation. From the current situation, the cost of recycling batteries actually only accounts for 50% to 60% of the total cost, and 40% to 50% of the cost is in transportation and labor. In addition, the storage and circulation links are not smooth enough, and the recycling system still needs to be improved. From the perspective of the development path of domestic batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries have been used earlier and their technology is relatively more mature, which are widely used in commercial vehicles. However, the battery loss is relatively fast, so the scrapping time is faster than that of ternary battery. At present, the recovery of lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganate urgently needs subsidy and other policies to promote the development of the industry.
Some people who do not want to be named pointed out that the implementation rules for incentives for power battery recycling should be formulated to subsidize and tax incentives for battery recycling enterprises and battery recycling enterprises according to the number and capacity of batteries, so as to improve the economy of the recycling industry.
Li Yuke believes that at present, battery enterprises and automobile enterprises recycle power batteries mainly for the treatment of their own batteries. The technology and mode are lack of universality, so we should pay close attention to the construction of a symbiotic and win-win recycling system. In the future, capital intensive and technology intensive waste power battery recycling industry cluster will become a development trend, and small enterprises with backward technology will be eliminated.
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